01862nam a22001337a 4500100009600000245014500096260004000241490007400281520123200355650002801587856009501615942000701710999001101717  aO'Hare, Bernadette Ann-Marie Makuta, Innocent Bar-Zeev, Naor Chiwaula, Levison Cobham, Alex  aThe effect of illicit financial flows on time to reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal in Sub-Saharan Africa :a quantitative analysis  aThe Royal Society of Medicinec2014  aJournal of the Royal Society of Medicine; 2014, Vol. 107(4) 148–156  aThis paper sets out to estimate the cost of illicit financial flows (IFF) in terms of the amount of time it could take to reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG) in 34 African countries. Design: We have calculated the percentage increase in gross domestic product (GDP) if IFFs were curtailed using IFF/GDP ratios. We applied the income (GDP) elasticity of child mortality to the increase in GDP to estimate the reduction in time to reach the fourth MDG in 34 African countries. Participants: children aged under five years. Settings: 34 countries in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). Main outcome measures: Reduction in time to reach the first indicator of the fourth MDG, under-five mortality rate in the absence of IFF. Results: We found that in the 34 SSA countries, six countries will achieve their fourth MDG target at the current rates of decline. In the absence of IFF, 16 countries would reach their fourth MDG target by 2015 and there would be large reductions for all other countries. Conclusions: This drain on development is facilitated by financial secrecy in other jurisdictions. Rich and poor countries alike must stem the haemorrhage of IFF by taking decisive steps towards improving financial transparency.  aIllicit financial flows  uhttp://iffoadatabase.trustafrica.org/iff/The effect of illicit financial flows on time.pdf  cCF  c39d39