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What Explains Massive Capital Flight from the Franc Zone?

by Ndiaye, Ameth. S
Published by : Centre for the Study of African Economies, (United Kingdom: ) Physical details: 44p. Year: 2009
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The phenomenon of capital flight appeared in the Franc Zone before the debt crisis of the early 1980s, and is today of greater importance in reason of its increasing magnitude. This paper examines the determinants of this phenomenon in the period 1970 to 2005. The econometric analysis indicates several factors. On the one hand, capital flight is driven by public rulers through external debt, aid and natural resources revenues, in the context of poor governance and bad institutional quality. On the other hand, capital flight is driven by private actors in the presence of macroeconomic instability that occurs in the forms of an increase in inflation, an exchange rate overvaluation, a decline in terms of trade, an uncertainty with respect to government consumption, real interest rates and budget deficits. Private capital flight episodes occur also in the context of less developed financial system that leads to a fall in deposit and in credit to private sector. Exploring the effects of other factors, past capital flight is important in explaining current capital flight, while rate of return differentials and armed conflict have insignificant effects. The policy implicat ions of these results are analysed in the way of inducing capital flight reversal.

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